New Zealand made the headlines this time last yr after a7.8 M quakerocked both the North and South Islands . For such a brawny tremor , it was favorable only a smattering of hoi polloi were killed – but geoscientists are now warning that the pieces are in place for the next disaster .
“ One thing about reflecting on from the Kaik?ura earthquake is we do n’t require people to think this is the braggart one , ” GNS scientist Dr Ursula Cochran told a gathering of scientists in Blenheim earlier this month , perStuff.co.nz .
New Zealand ’s so - call “ big one ” , a potential 9.0 M earth tremor , is still on its way of life .
The world’smost powerful earthquakesalways pass on these subduction zone . The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan was a devastating recent example of this , but it appears not much media attention is being given to various subduction zona around the world .
Although the likelihood of a powerful earth tremor occurring along the San Andreas Fault in the next 30 years is essentially a dead certainty , it ’s in reality thePacific Northwestyou should watch out for , where the subduction of one plate under the North American plate is building up a mountain of stress .
The Hikurangi subduction geographical zone off the eastern seaboard of New Zealand ’s North Island is in a standardized situation . Here , the pelagic Hikurangi Plateau is sinking beneath the continental crust of the Indo - Australian plate .
The friction between these colossal piece of crust builds up tenseness , and from time to time it ’s let go of during temblor of varying volume . The 7.8 M Kaik?ura earthquake in November 2016 took place along the southernmost part of the Hikurangi subduction zone .
Although it ’s debated how much the Hikurangi subduction geographical zone had to do with the temblor , geologist accord that this part of the fault web is now active . Initially , most surmise the southern remnant was pretty rigidly stuck , but the seism changed all that . It ’s moving , and it ’s build up stress .
When it ruptures , it could produce a herculean , potentially record - breaking megathrust temblor . Its geographic posture means that it has the voltage to bring forth a brawny and devastating tsunami too , one that would take only seven minute to reach the North Island , and a little longer to hit the northern South Island .
“ We need to think Japan 2011 basically , because if our whole plate boundary bust it would be a magnitude 9 earthquake , ” Cochran bestow . She laterclarifiedthat quake reaching 8.0 M are known from the geologic record ; a 9.0 M is theoretically possible .
At present , no - one can say when such an event will occur , nor whether the entire fault will slip all at once – but it ’s sure as shooting something the office involve to be aware of .
“ Do n’t be frightened , be prepare , ” Cochran told theNew Zealand Herald .
